Modifications of Chess for War Research

Researchers in Sweden and Australia are Modifying chess to study the importance of information, materiel, and tempo in warfare (Emma Young in The Guardian):

On the face of it, the bloodless, low-tech game of chess might seem to bear little resemblance to modern warfare. "But it resembles real war in many respects," maintains Jan Kuylenstierna, one of the Swedish researchers. "Chess involves a struggle of will, and it contains what has been termed the essentials of fighting - to strike, to move and to protect." By studying chess and other adversarial abstract games such as checkers (draughts), researchers can strip away some of the confusion of the battlefield and identify the factors that are most important for winning, says Jason Scholz, who leads the Australian work. "The strength of this approach is our level of abstraction," Scholz says.

But neither group is studying standard games. By modifying key variables, such as the number of moves al lowed each turn, or whether one player can see all of the other's pieces, they are investigating the relative importance of a host of factors that translate to the battlefield, such as numerical superiority, a quick advance and the use of stealth.

"There's all sorts of anecdotal evidence that there are certain factors in warfare that are important, and people talk about having a strong operational tempo, and that kind of thing," says Greg Calbert, a mathematician on Scholz's team. "But even today there's debate over what really counts. How important is stealth over tempo, or tempo over numerical strength? That's what we wanted to find out." As well as informing fundamental military theory, this kind of information could have a big impact on how army procurement officers choose to spend their budget. There might be urgent calls for more tanks or better surveillance devices - when, in fact, to win the next war the money might be better spent on faster communications systems, for instance.

One major difference between chess and war is that chess does not contain what the military terms "information uncertainty". Unlike a battle commander, who may have incomplete intelligence about his opponent's level of weaponry or location of munitions depots, one chess player can always see the other's pieces, and note their every move. So Kuylenstierna and his colleagues asked players to compete with a board each and an opaque screen between them. A game leader transferred each player's moves to the other's board - but not always instantaneously. For instance, one game modification resulted in a player being prevented from seeing their opponent's latest two moves.

These games, and other variations on regular play, led the team to a clear conclusion: being stronger and having more "battlespace information" than your opponent are both less valuable when there is little information available overall to both sides - but the advantage of a fast pace remains. "The value of information superiority is strongly tempered by uncertainty, whereas the value of superior tempo is much less affected," says Kuylenstierna.

Uncertainty is often a problem in war. So in practical terms, launching a rapid attack might provide a better chance of winning than trying to gain more information about the battlefield situation, or ensuring that you have numerical strength over your opponent. "To what extent these findings have had any influence on decisions made by the Swedish military I dare not say - but they continue to sponsor our work," Kuylenstierna adds.

Here is a link to a report of the Swedish team's chess research (pdf). And here is a link to a PowerPoint slideshow on the Australian team's conclusions (pdf).