More on the black box voting in Florida, 2004 and Polls with GOP bias and the SCLM

Pregnant chads, vanishing voters... the election fiasco of 2000 made the Sunshine State a laughing stock. More importantly, it put George Bush in the White House. You'd think they'd want to get it right this time. But no, as Andrew Gumbel discovers, the democratic process is more flawed than ever.

Read Andrew Gumbel's report from today's Independent here: Something rotten in the state of Florida.
Mr. Gumbel revisits some of the problems of the 2000 election, and the millions spent on flawed technology that doesn't even fix the problems.

The best thing about this story: people are fighting back:

Some people believe the best strategy is to keep fighting. There are high hopes of introducing a voter-verified paper trail before the 2008 presidential election, and there are signs that a grassroots movement to restore ex-felons' voting rights is finding support beyond Florida's boundaries.

"We're trying not to get bogged down in negatives," said Monica Russo, a state co-ordinator for the service workers' union. "If you do that, everyone will slit their wrists. We're union workers - we're used to having the deck stacked against us. It's about helping people to get through the process."

Well, having the deck stacked against us is normal. A good example of this are all the recent polls supposedly showing President Bush in the lead against Senator Kerry. Let's be logical:

1. There are more Democrats than Republicans in the electorate.
2. It is highly unlikely that voters for Mr. Gore in 2000 will be switching in large numbers to vote for Mr. Bush.
3. It is highly likely that at least some voters for Mr. Bush in 2000 have been disappointed by his performance in office--the failure in Iraq, the sluggish economy, and the fiscal irresponsibility of massive deficits--and will vote for Senator Kerry.

Therefore, something is wrong with the polls, in particular, the Gallup poll, which is probably the most publicized and yet the most obviously wrong:

It is pathetic and unacceptable for a "non-partisan" polling firm to be produce the outlying poll in favor of Bush in fourteen of its last sixteen polls. The odds of this happening at random are around one in 14,000. Considering those odds, the far more likely explanation for all these outliers is that Gallup's polling methodology is inherently structured in favor of Bush. Whether or not it is intentional, I do not know. However, I do know that Gallup's polls are connected to the largest news outlets in America of any poll, both in terms of print (USA Today is the largest circulation newspaper in the country) and cable news (CNN has more viewers than Fox, they just watch for shorter periods of time). I also know that sensational headlines sell. I further know that Gallup's chairman is a Republican donor.

Dear reader, perhaps you need more evidence of Gallup's faulty methodology? Check out this: Gallup Is At It Again - Yesterday's National Poll Had 12% GOP Bias by Steve Soto at the Left Coaster:

Here is the text from the email I got from Gallup this morning outlining the party ID breakdown in their likely voter samples from their two most recent national polls:

Likely Voter Sample Party IDs – Poll of September 13-15
Reflected Bush Winning by 55%-42%

Total Sample: 767
GOP: 305 (40%)
Dem: 253 (33%)
Ind: 208 (28%)

Likely Voter Sample Party IDs – Poll of September 24-26
Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%

Total Sample: 758
GOP: 328 (43%)
Dem: 236 (31%)
Ind: 189 (25%)

Looking at this, again I have a simple question: how can anyone, especially USA Today and CNN, let alone the rest of the media take a Gallup national poll seriously when Gallup knowingly puts a poll out there for consumption with a 12% GOP bias in its likely voter sample that everyone knows does not exist in the country today or at any time in the last three presidential elections?

Yet this flawed poll showed a narrowing Bush lead from their similarly flawed poll of two weeks ago. So if a poll with an unsupportable GOP bias of 12% in its likely voter sample, shows an 8% Bush lead amongst likely voters when a poll they used two weeks ago with a 7% GOP bias showed a 13% Bush lead with likely voters, then how can anyone not conclude that Kerry is doing much better than Gallup would have you believe?

The cynic in me wonders whether the So-Called Liberal Media lets the pollsters get away with this so they can legitimate the stealing of the election this time.

[conspiratorial whisper] Maybe if we keep drumming up the lie that Kerry doesn't have a chance, enough Democrats will sit on their hands and won't bother going to the polls?[/conspiratorial whisper]

Don't count on it. Any methodology that assumes Democrats are not as likely to vote as Republicans this time is baloney. The pollsters are going to goof up like they did in 1948 when they predicted President Truman's loss.

In researching this post, I noticed that the Left Coaster has even more on Gallup's bias and the SCLM's collusion with the pollsters.

Father, let me dedicate All this year to you
In whatever earthly state You will have me be
Not from sorrow, pain, or care Freedom dare I claim;
This alone shall be my prayer: Glorify Your name.
--from New Year's Hymn by Lawrence Tuttiett, 1864 (alt.)